How fast will you run your next race?

After having run the first 5K, many people get the running bug. 5K is not enough, they want to go further and start preparing for a 10K or even a half marathon. If you are one of these runners, you certainly want to know how fast you could go over a longer distance based on your 5K performance.

Over time, multiple scientists and runners have worked on formulas which basically allow predicting finishing times based on a recent performance. The most used formula in the running world is the Riegel formula. This formula is named after Peter Riegel, an American research engineer.

How accurate is the Riegel formula?

The formula has been published in 1977 in Runner’s World Magazine. The formula basically says that your performance declines by 6% if the distance doubles. If for example, you run your last 5K in 30:00 you can expect to finish a 10K in 01:02:33. The Riegel formula works perfectly fine for distances until the half marathon. Critics mean that the 6% factor is too low if it comes to longer distances like a Marathon or even Ultramarathon. In order to make predictions more precise, runners would then use additional tools like the Purdy tables or the Cameron formula and recoup the results.

Runerio’s Time prediction calculator

You want to know what your recent time is worth on other distances: Then download Runerio’s Time prediction calculator. Just enter your time over a given a distance as well as the target distance and the calculator will provide your with the time prediction and average pace. Have fun!


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